01648nas a2200229   4500000000100000000000100001008004100002260000900043653002100052653003100073653002700104653002500131653001500156653002800171653002000199653001600219100001900235245005200254300001000306490000700316520109500323       2009                            d  c200910acontext scenario10aLong-term defense planning10amorphological analysis10aplanning methodology10arobustness10ascenario-based planning10asystem analysis10aUncertainty1 aValeri Ratchev00aContext Scenarios in Long-Term Defense Planning  a62-720 v233 a<p>Recently, a team of Bulgarian analysts proposed a novel long-term planning methodology that envisions a scenario-based, concept-driven, and capa­bilities-oriented planning process intended to provide for robustness in an uncertain security and force development environment. The methodology uses two types of scenarios – context scenarios (or “alternative futures”) and situational scenarios. This article presents a process for designing context scenarios and a summary in­formation on the scenarios developed for use in Bulgaria’s long-term planning process. The proposed approach to the development of context scenarios involves five distinct steps – preparation, strategic base analysis, analysis of the characteris­tics of the future, definition of national security interests’ zones, and development and analysis of context scenarios. A specialized software tool called Intelligent Scenario Computer Interface Program Morphological Analysis/ System Analysis (I-SCIP-MA-SA) was developed to support both the morphological and system analy­ses within the process.</p>