@article{798,
  keywords = {context scenario, Long-term defense planning, morphological analysis, planning methodology, robustness, scenario-based planning, system analysis, Uncertainty},
  author = {Valeri Ratchev},
  title = {Context Scenarios in Long-Term Defense Planning},
  abstract = {<p>Recently, a team of Bulgarian analysts proposed a novel long-term planning methodology that envisions a scenario-based, concept-driven, and capa­bilities-oriented planning process intended to provide for robustness in an uncertain security and force development environment. The methodology uses two types of scenarios – context scenarios (or “alternative futures”) and situational scenarios. This article presents a process for designing context scenarios and a summary in­formation on the scenarios developed for use in Bulgaria’s long-term planning process. The proposed approach to the development of context scenarios involves five distinct steps – preparation, strategic base analysis, analysis of the characteris­tics of the future, definition of national security interests’ zones, and development and analysis of context scenarios. A specialized software tool called Intelligent Scenario Computer Interface Program Morphological Analysis/ System Analysis (I-SCIP-MA-SA) was developed to support both the morphological and system analy­ses within the process.</p>},
  year = {2009},
  journal = {Information & Security: An International Journal},
  volume = {23},
  pages = {62-72},
  month = {2009},
  doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.11610/isij.2306},
  language = {eng},
}