01566nas a2200217   4500000000100000000000100001008004100002260000900043653002200052653003900074653001700113653001400130653003400144100001800178700002100196700001600217245012600233300001000359490000700369520097200376       2013                            d  c201310acentre of gravity10aCritical Infrastructure Protection10across-impact10aforesight10asupply chain Petersberg tasks1 aTodor Tagarev1 aVenelin Georgiev1 aJuha Ahokas00aEvaluating the Cross-impact of EU Functions as a Global Actor and Protector of Critical Infrastructures and Supply Chains  a34-480 v293 a<p>The paper presents main results of the analysis of cross impact between two of the ‘big themes’ in the FOCUS project: “EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg Tasks” and “Critical infrastructure &amp; supply chain protection.” The cross impact was evaluated by experts from both EU and non-EU countries. For each theme they were asked to estimate significance and interrelation of trends, thus allowing the research team to identify centres of gravity within each theme. Then they estimated the pairwise linkage of trends from the two themes. The study resulted in identification of key linkages among trends, to be further explored in the analysis of respective contexts, mission roles, and security research scenarios. This practical test of the presented model—having relatively limited number of domains and trends—contributes to the transparency and illustrative power of FOCUS methodology and can be expanded in future studies.</p>