01618nas a2200157   4500000000100000008004100001653001600042653002400058653002000082653001800102100001600120245008300136300001000219490000700229520122400236       2020                            d10aattribution10aconfidence-building10acyber arms race10acyber warfare1 aSanjay Goel00aHow Improved Attribution in Cyber Warfare Can Help De-Escalate Cyber Arms Race  a87-950 v193 a<p>Cyber warfare is a critical component of nation-states’ military arsenals, and a cyber arms race has emerged in the absence of international agreements (norms and confidence-building measures) to limit the use of cyber warfare. One key impediment to building consensus on cyber norms and confidence-building measures is a lack of transparency in cyber weapons development and poor attribution of attack perpetrators. Recently, there has been an improvement in attribution capabilities based on better data collection and the profiling of known hackers and nation states by intelligence agencies, and this should give impetus to efforts to establish confidence-building measures and cyber norms. This article discusses the need for and challenges associated with attribution, recent advances that will lead to better attribution, and the collective responsibility of nation states in addressing these challenges. It suggests several initiatives to reduce chances of cyber conflict, as well as to prevent cyber conflicts from escalating, such as defining clear processes for attribution, creating neutral bodies for incident analysis, and limiting the scope of retaliation based on the confidence in attribution.</p>