01510nas a2200193   4500000000100000000000100001008004100002260000900043653002300052653001900075653002500094653002800119100001800147700001800165245008400183300001200267490000700279520103000286       2009                            d  c200910aCapability costing10adefence budget10adefence policy model10apurchasing power parity1 aTodor Tagarev1 aLidia Velkova00aBulgaria’s Defence Policy and Force Size from a Comparative Macro Perspective  a115-1280 v233 a<p>The paper presents a novel, theoretically sound approach to the analysis of defence policy and force models and first results of its implementation. The ap­proach is based on comparison of defence policies and cost data under the hypothe­sis that a particular defence policy relates to a specific set of defence capabilities with the respective impact on cost. We identified six factors, or dimensions, of de­fence policy with major impact on the cost of the respective capabilities, and used publicly available data to construct a model of capability cost, expressed in defence budget per active duty military personnel in constant purchasing power parity dol­lars, as a function of the six factors. Then the model was used to define what might be the reasonable force size of the Bulgarian Armed Forces in 2015 under three plausible alternative defence policies. The final section of the paper outlines strengths and limitations of the approach, as well as outputs and potential outcomes from its implementation.</p>