02263nas a2200253   4500000000100000000000100001008004100002260000900043653002700052653002200079653002400101653002600125653002700151653001900178100001900197700002300216700001800239700002200257700002000279245006800299300001000367490000700377520162500384       2009                            d  c200910adeterministic scenario10aearthquake safety10aearthquake scenario10ageotechnical zonation10aHistorical earthquakes10aseismic hazard1 aDimcho Solakov1 aIrena Aleksandrova1 aIliana Popova1 aGergana Georgieva1 aStela Simeonova00aEarthquake Scenarios for the Cities of Sofia, Rousse and Vratsa  a51-640 v243 a<p>Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to ef­fects of strong earthquakes. The uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seis­mic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seis­mic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of seismic risk. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earth­quakes. The strongest earthquakes reached magnitude 7.8 in southwestern Bulgaria, magnitude 7.5 in northeastern Bulgaria, and magnitude 7.0 in southern Bulgaria. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study earthquake scenarios for three Bulgarian cities (Sofia, Rousse and Vratsa) are presented. The scenarios were generated using deterministic approach that was applied in the European pro­ject Risk-EU (2001-2004). Such scenarios are intended as a basic input for devel­oping detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earth­quake-safe town and infrastructure planning.</p>